Review of New Rating System, Brian Wilson North Down Councillor, first Green Party MLA in Northern Ireland

Assembly Elections: Constituency Predictions

Review of New Rating System, Brian Wilson North Down Councillor, first Green Party MLA in Northern IrelandThese predictions are based on applying the 2016 Assembly election votes to the new five seat constituencies.They do not take into account the candidates, issues and the campaign. These predictions will be adjusted to take these into account along with the final polling evidence from Lucid Talk.

The DUP will lose 9 SF 6 SDLP 2 and UU 2


It is difficult for a party with 3 MLAs at present to retain 3 seats. This is equivalent to 3 Quotas (50% of vote including transfers) and this would require great vote discipline and favorable transfers. Both DUP and SF are not transfer friendly, although some seats will be won without quota. Few of the twelve 3 seat constituencies held by DUP and SF will be retained


East Belfast

2 DUP 2 ALL 1 UU

Alliance have 2 safe seats.  It is difficult to see how DUP can retain 3 seats with only 2.2 quotas. UU with .7 quota are more transfer friendly.

1 DUP loss


South Belfast

1DUP 1SDLP 1ALL 1SF 1 GREEN

DUP, SDLP, Alliance and SF all have one safe seat. The final seat is likely to be contested between the Greens and the second DUP candidate with an outside chance for second SDLP, Alliance or perhaps UU candidate dependent on sequence of eliminations

1 DUP loss 


West Belfast

4 SF 1PBP

SF (3.4 quotas) will retain 3 seats with PBP (1.4 quotas) taking the fourth.  The final seat will probably also go to SF with SDLP (.4 quota) likely to lose the seat unless transfers from Unionists (.7 quotas) or PBP.

PBP will be looking for a second seat.

1 SDLP loss


North Belfast

2DUP 2SF 1 SDLP

SF(1.6) SDLP (.6) This is a very fragmented constituency and may be determined by the order of eliminations but it is difficult to see how 3 Nat/Rep seats can be retained with 2.2 quotas. SF (1.6) SDLP (.6). Possible SF or SDLP loss. On the other hand it is difficult to see how DUP can retain 3 with 2.1 quotas. Alliance or possibly PBP could be dark horses.

1 DUP loss 


East Antrim

2DUP 2UU 1All

Again DUP will have difficulty retaining 3 seats with 2.2 quotas. UU and Alliance have 1 safe seat. SF with .5 of a quota and no obvious hope of significant transfers will almost certainly lose their seat. There are a large number of floating unionist votes which may not go to DUP and there is the potential for a UU or UKIP pick up.

1DUP loss 1SF loss


East Londonderry

2DUP 1SF 1SDLP 1INDU

Again DUP are defending 3 seats with 2.2 quotas and therefore have 2 safe seats but will struggle to retain the third. Independent unionist Claire Sugden has .6 of a quota and may retain seat, if not it would probably return to UU. There are almost 2 nationalist quotas. SF have a safe seat and the SDLP may have difficulty retaining theirs particularly in light of the internal party dispute.

1 DUP loss


Fermanagh / South Tyrone

2DUP 2SF 1SDLP

This will depend on the relative turnout within the 2 communities. Always a knife edge seat. In 2015 Westminster election the UU regained the seat from SF with a majority of 530. Unionists tend to be more disciplined in transfers

1 SDLP loss


Foyle

1DUP 2 SDLP 1SF 1PB

Safe DUP seat with SDLP (1.8) SF (1.7). If PBP retain seat as likely either SDLP or SF will lose one of their 2 seats. SF more likely, loss of McGuinness, SDLP stronghold and SF less receptive to transfers

1 SF loss


Lagan Valley

2DUP 2UU 1ALL

If ALL retain seat as expected 4 unionist seats will be shared between DUP and UU. With .7 of quota no nationalist seat likely but SDLP have outside chance of surprise otherwise their vote will help ALL get elected

1 DUP loss


Mid Ulster

1DUP 2SF 1UU 1SDLP

Unionists would appear to have 2 safe seats leaving 3 to be shared between SDLP and SF. It would be difficult for SF to distribute their votes (2.8 quotas) between 3 candidates particularly when popular SDLP MLA has .9 of a quota.

1 SF loss


Newry and Armagh

1DUP 2SF 1UU 1 SDLP

Possible SF loss Again if unionists retain 2 seats and SDLP have more than a quota SF cannot retain 3 seats on (2.5quotas)

1 SF loss


North Antrim

2DUP 1SF 1TUV 1UU

SF should retain seat with 1.2 nationalist quotas. TUV have at least one safe seat UU should retain their seat leaving only 2 for the DUP

1 DUP loss


North Down

2DUP 1UU 1All 1 Green

By only standing 2 candidates DUP have conceded loss of one seat the other 4 MLA’s should remain the same.

1 DUP loss


South Antrim

2DUP 1UU 1SF 1All

With 1.4 nationalist quotas SF should retain its seat. If ALL can remain ahead of SDLP Ford will hold his seat. This leaves 3 unionist seats probably 2 DUP 1 UU.

1 DUP loss


South Down

1DUP 2SDLP 1SF 1UU

Unionists will have great difficulty in retaining 2 seats but solid transfers could achieve this. Although in 2016 SF and SDLP polled virtually same SDLP has always been marginally ahead and has local MP. In addition they are more likely to receive transfers (Esp. from Alliance). However an overall increase in nationalist turnout would result in 2 SDLP 2 SF.  The departure of Ruane would suggest SF are not confident of retaining 2 seats. ALL have an outside chance of taking the fifth seat.

1 SF loss


Strangford

2DUP 2UU 1ALL

Four unionists seats with ALL taking the 5th as long as they remain ahead of SDLP .Two certain DUP seats and one UU. Final seat between 3rd DUP 2nd UU and perhaps Independent Jonathan Bell

1 UU loss


Upper Bann

2DUP 1UU 2 SF

With only 3 unionist quotas it will be difficult to retain 4 Unionist seats. With 2.1 nationalist quotas SF (1.5) SDLP (.6) SF should retain both seats. But SF not confident of retaining second seat (Seeley Withdrawal) SDLP could attract transfers and create upset

1 UU loss


West Tyrone

1DUP 2SF 1UU 1SDLP

Unionists have just over 2 quotas and should retain both seats. Nationalists have 3.2 quotas SF (2.5) SDLP (.7). Possible SF loss as the SDLP have a solid first preference vote and should retain seat.

1 SF Loss


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