DUP Likely to lose 3rd seat in North Down Assembly election.

DUP Likely to lose 3rd seat in North Down Assembly election.

Based on the local government elections the DUP vote falls by 13.2%.

I have completed an analysis of the election results for the new North Down & Ards Council Because of the change in council boundaries and the new District Electoral areas it is difficult to make a comparison with the previous local election vote in 2011. However it is clear that there has been a significant decline in the DUP and Alliance vote with the UUP and to a lesser extent the Greens gaining support.

The overall result comparing the votes cast for the North Down and Ards Councils in 2011 with 2014 shows the percentage changes as follows;

Party	% of Vote 2011	%  of vote 2014	% difference
DUP	41.8%	35.4%	– 6.4%
Alliance	18.3%	13.4 %	-.4.9%
UUP	15.7%	17.4 %	+1.7%

 

There is a similar pattern in both council areas. The old North Down council consisted of the new electoral areas of the Holywood, Bangor West and Bangor Central plus two thirds of Bangor East. The figures below have been adjusted to reflect this.

North Down-based on 2011 boundaries

Party	% of Vote 2011	% of Vote 2014	% change
DUP	36.2%	30.9%	-5.3%
Alliance	18.3%	15.8%	-2.5%
UUP	13.9%	16.7%	+3.1%
Green	7.4%	8.5%	+1.1%

29.3% Others/Independents

Ards based on 2011 boundaries

Party	% of Vote 2011	% of Vote 2014	% Difference
DUP	47.4%	39.8%	-7.6%
Alliance	18.2%	11.2	-7.0%
UUP	17.5%	17.9%	+0.4%
SDLP	6.81%	6.6%	-0.2%

 

North Down Assembly

It is interesting to compare the 2014 vote with that for the North Down Assembly (2011). This shows a reduction in DUP vote of 13.2% (44.2%-31.0),  Alliance fell 3.4%(18.6%-15.2%) with the UUP vote increasing by 6.6%(10.4%-17.0%).

On the basis of these figures it would seem that the DUP will have difficulty in retaining their third seat and both Alliance and UUP have one safe seat. The other two seats are wholly unpredictable.

To some extent this would a suggest return to the Assembly pre-2011 situation. In 2011 DUP increased their share of the vote by 10.1%, Alliance had their best ever Assembly vote(+8.4%) while the UUP lost more than half of theirs (-13.3%).

See update http://brianawilson.com/dup-to-lose-mla-in-north-down/

DUP to lose MLA in North Down