Review of New Rating System, Brian Wilson North Down Councillor, first Green Party MLA in Northern Ireland

DUP Likely to lose 3rd seat in North Down Assembly election.

DUP Likely to lose 3rd seat in North Down Assembly election.

Based on the local government elections the DUP vote falls by 13.2%.

I have completed an analysis of the election results for the new North Down & Ards Council Because of the change in council boundaries and the new District Electoral areas it is difficult to make a comparison with the previous local election vote in 2011. However it is clear that there has been a significant decline in the DUP and Alliance vote with the UUP and to a lesser extent the Greens gaining support.

The overall result comparing the votes cast for the North Down and Ards Councils in 2011 with 2014 shows the percentage changes as follows;

Party % of Vote 2011 %  of vote 2014 % difference
DUP 41.8% 35.4% – 6.4%
Alliance 18.3% 13.4 % -.4.9%
UUP 15.7% 17.4 % +1.7%

 

There is a similar pattern in both council areas. The old North Down council consisted of the new electoral areas of the Holywood, Bangor West and Bangor Central plus two thirds of Bangor East. The figures below have been adjusted to reflect this.

North Down-based on 2011 boundaries

Party % of Vote 2011 % of Vote 2014 % change
DUP 36.2% 30.9% -5.3%
Alliance 18.3% 15.8% -2.5%
UUP 13.9% 16.7% +3.1%
Green 7.4% 8.5% +1.1%

29.3% Others/Independents

Ards based on 2011 boundaries

Party % of Vote 2011 % of Vote 2014 % Difference
DUP 47.4% 39.8% -7.6%
Alliance 18.2% 11.2 -7.0%
UUP 17.5% 17.9% +0.4%
SDLP 6.81% 6.6% -0.2%

 

North Down Assembly

It is interesting to compare the 2014 vote with that for the North Down Assembly (2011). This shows a reduction in DUP vote of 13.2% (44.2%-31.0),  Alliance fell 3.4%(18.6%-15.2%) with the UUP vote increasing by 6.6%(10.4%-17.0%).

On the basis of these figures it would seem that the DUP will have difficulty in retaining their third seat and both Alliance and UUP have one safe seat. The other two seats are wholly unpredictable.

To some extent this would a suggest return to the Assembly pre-2011 situation. In 2011 DUP increased their share of the vote by 10.1%, Alliance had their best ever Assembly vote(+8.4%) while the UUP lost more than half of theirs (-13.3%).

See update https://brianawilson.com/dup-to-lose-mla-in-north-down/

DUP to lose MLA in North Down

 

 


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One response to “DUP Likely to lose 3rd seat in North Down Assembly election.”

  1. […] I would expect the party to lose one of its three seats as suggested by former Green Party MLA Brian Wilson in his analysis in 2014 local government elections. The results showed that the DUP vote had fallen from 44% to […]

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